Supermarket shoppers are having to pay more than £16 a kilo for a leg as overlapping religious festivals, shrinking flocks and buoyant export demand put pressure on Britain’s sheep sector
British households sitting down for Easter dinner this weekend face the highest lamb prices ever as a rare calendar clash with the end of Ramadan collides with a dwindling national flock and strong continental export demand.
Figures compiled by retail analysts Assosia show the average price of a leg of lamb at Tesco, Morrisons, Asda and Sainsbury’s rose to £16.23 a kilo, up 12.5 per cent on a year ago when shoppers paid £14.43. The biggest gains in the supermarket were at Sainsbury’s, where a British butterfly item rose by a third to £20, while its Taste the Difference Welsh Hill half item rose 22.4 per cent to £17.75. Tesco’s ‘Finest’ lamb shoulder, meanwhile, has risen 16.4 per cent to the same mark of £17.75.
The price increase at checkouts reflects a strong movement in wholesale markets. The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) reports that the price of wholesale lamb has risen from around £7.20 a kilo at Easter last year to almost £8.40 today.
Independent butchers are also feeling the crisis. Sam Bagge, manager of the award-winning Walsingham Farm Shop in Norfolk, said a 2.5kg leg of local lamb now retails for £75, up from £65 a year ago. “It’s definitely as expensive as I’ve ever seen it,” he said, adding that price-conscious customers were increasingly turning to rolled pork shoulder, leading to a 30 percent increase in demand at 27 pounds a piece.
Livestock auctioneer James Little described the conditions as “a perfect storm.” He said Eid traditionally boosts demand for lamb and with Easter falling early this year, the two festive peaks have flowed directly into one another. “There was a lot of demand at the end of Ramadan, and then we also encountered Easter demand,” he said.
Mr Little added that the UK’s growing Muslim population was driving greater year-round demand: AHDB survey data shows that 80 per cent of halal consumers in the UK eat lamb at least once a week, compared to around 6 per cent of the general population. In addition, he pointed to the “massive demand for British lamb in France, Belgium, Holland and Portugal”.
Dave Barton, chairman of the National Farmers’ Union’s livestock committee, said prices had been “driven primarily by strong public demand outstripping supply, here in the UK and globally”. He warned that the shortage would be exacerbated by a steady shrinking of the breeding herd. The National Sheep Association estimates the number of breeding sheep in the UK at 14.7 million, the lowest level in living memory.
Mr Barton blamed a collapse in farmer confidence, citing “the expiry of direct government subsidy payments as well as high operating costs and market volatility”. He called on ministers to support investment in the sector to rebuild the national herd and secure a “resilient, sustainable and thriving” industry capable of meeting increasing demand.
Welsh sheep farmer Gareth Wynn Jones said export appetite remained robust as Portuguese buyers prized Welsh mountain lambs for their Christmas barbecues. However, he warned that last year’s dry weather had affected the 2026 crop. “There hasn’t been much food. The number of pregnant ewes has dropped, so there will be fewer lambs on the ground,” he said, suggesting tight supply and firm prices could continue well beyond this Easter weekend.
