Britain risks becoming heavily dependent on US gas imports within the next decade, prompting renewed calls to increase North Sea production to ensure energy security.
New analysis from Wood Mackenzie suggests that liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from the United States could account for around 60 percent of Britain’s gas supply by 2035, a dramatic increase from around 10 percent in 2024.
The forecast comes at a time of heightened geopolitical tensions and volatility in global energy markets, raising concerns about the risks posed by reliance on a single external supplier.
Britain’s domestic gas production has fallen steadily for decades, with production from the North Sea now at its lowest level since the early 1970s. As supply falls, the country is increasingly reliant on imports, including pipeline gas from Norway and LNG supplies from overseas.
In 2024, the UK sourced around 43 percent of its gas from the domestic North Sea, a similar proportion from Norway and the remainder from LNG imports, mostly from the US.
Wood Mackenzie’s forecasts suggest that this balance will shift significantly over the next decade as domestic production continues to decline faster than aggregate demand.
The consultancy argues that increasing domestic oil and gas production could help reduce vulnerability to international market shocks and improve resilience.
Gail Anderson, research director at Wood Mackenzie, said the UK should take a broad approach to energy policy, combining renewable energy with the continued use of domestic hydrocarbons and new technologies such as carbon capture and hydrogen.
“Reducing dependence on LNG imports should be a priority,” she said, particularly in an environment where energy supplies are increasingly influenced by geopolitical conflicts.
The analysis also suggests that gas produced on the UK continental shelf has a smaller carbon footprint than LNG transported across the Atlantic and can be delivered at a significantly lower cost in the short term.
The results are likely to intensify the debate within government about the future of North Sea production.
Industry groups have warned that the decline in production is being accelerated by tax policies and restrictions on new exploration licenses, which they say limit the UK’s ability to maximize domestic resources.
However, the government maintains that expanding fossil fuel extraction is not the solution to long-term energy security or price stability, instead emphasizing the need to accelerate the transition to clean, domestic energy.
A government spokesman said the focus remained on maintaining existing production while investing in renewable energy and reducing dependence on volatile global markets.
Most analysts agree that increasing North Sea production would have a limited impact on consumer energy prices, which are largely determined by global markets.
But proponents argue that even small increases in domestic supply could improve safety and reduce vulnerability to supply disruptions.
The debate has been heightened by recent developments in the Middle East, where the conflict has disrupted key shipping routes and contributed to rising energy prices.
The risk of further escalation has highlighted the strategic importance of secure and diversified energy supplies for import-dependent countries such as the United Kingdom.
As the UK advances its transition to net zero, balancing short-term energy security and long-term decarbonization goals remains a key challenge.
Recent analysis suggests that without intervention, reliance on imported gas, particularly from the US, will increase significantly, raising questions about resilience and costs.
For policymakers, the task will be to navigate these competing priorities and ensure the UK’s energy system remains secure, affordable and sustainable in an increasingly uncertain global environment.
