The first preliminary emissions figures under Australia’s New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES) begin to draw a line between the car brands sitting on credit and the brands sitting on credit. Accounting firm BDO warns that if automakers push electric vehicles (EVs) more than the market is prepared to absorb, the consequences may be felt on dealers’ balance sheets.
BDO unveiled an early display board at an Australian Automotive Dealer Association (AADA) event this morning 2025 preliminary emission value (IEV).and it shows some clear winners.
According to BDO data BYD 6,282,824 credits accumulated from 39,603 vehicle imports, Toyota 2,890,625 were imported out of 115,504 imports, and Tesla 2,212,093 were imported from 13,907 imports.
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Kia, Geely, Volkswagen, Chery, Ford, GWM/Haval, SAIC, Isuzu Ute, BMW, Polestar, Zeekr and Volvo were also shown on the credit side.
On the other side of the ledger, Mazda was reported at 508,517 liability units, Nissan at 215,261, Subaru at 139,635 and Hyundai at 84,563.
In BDO’s table, this liability is also accompanied by a theoretical burden figure per vehicle, including $661 per vehicle for Mazda, $776 for Nissan, $529 for Subaru and $106 for Hyundai.
Further down the same list were Honda at $144 per vehicle, Land Rover at $273, Mahindra at $597, KGM at $567, Porsche at $1012 and GM at $2122.
At the exotic end, Ferrari was reported at $7,308 per vehicle, Aston Martin at $6,608, Rolls-Royce at $6,613, Maserati at $2,342 and Alfa Romeo at $2,081.
In the liability table, BDO’s average was $471 per vehicle. But that doesn’t mean these brands will face a bill today.
One of BDO’s final slides stated that non-compliant OEMs have until December 31, 2027 to reduce their 2025 IEV to zero or below. Credits can be stored in the bank for up to three years or sold to other brands.
But the direction of travel is clear.
The 2026 IEV measurement period is already underway and envisages stricter CO2 limits than 2025 before these are raised further until 2029, so the pressure on car brands will only continue.
And things start to get interesting with BDO’s modeling of the NVES lending market.
In a slide, BDO says 17.16 million credit units and 1,217,811 liability units were generated in the 2025 IEV period. Taking into account the maximum penalty of $50 per unit of liability, this results in potential NVES fines of $60.9 million if brands do not take action to offset their position.
From there, BDO calculates a mathematical floor of $3.55 per credit.
A second scenario assumes that not all loans actually enter the market, as some brands hold on to them to hedge against future shortfalls. Based on this, BDO estimates that the total amount of available loans could be closer to 10.3 million, bringing the implied value to $5.87 per loan.
Using BYD as an example, BDO then calculates that the financial benefit from selling credits could be anywhere between $562 and $972 per imported vehicle over the same IEV period.
That’s a meaningful number in any market, but especially in a market where dealer margins are already under pressure.
And that’s the real story here.
BDO doesn’t just say that NVES poses a compliance problem for OEMs. It says that NVES now shapes product strategy, stock mix, incentives and pricing, and that the dealer network is where these decisions first become visible.
One of the company’s summary slides showed that most OEMs have already adjusted their battery electric and hybrid vehicle strategies to reduce the impact of NVES and that market demand for these products is directly linked to dealer profitability.
The problem is that the market doesn’t move evenly.
Another BDO slide showed that EV market share reached 12.2 percent in February, while EV share was at 10.5 percent year-to-date.
At the same time, the market share of hybrid vehicles has increased to 22 percent from 15 percent last June, while non-hybrid gasoline and diesel vehicles still account for 67 percent of the market.
This is important because BDO’s presentation argues that electric vehicle sales growth is highly concentrated in Australia.
The slide page states that 81 percent of electric vehicle sales growth is driven by Chinese brands. Tesla accounts for another 16 percent, while all other brands combined only account for 3.0 percent.
A separate BDO slide then goes further, arguing that the addressable EV market for all but the Chinese brands and Tesla is effectively closer to 3.0 percent, even though the overall EV share is 10.5 percent.
In plain language: The market for electric vehicles exists, but it is not evenly distributed across all brands. BDO sees a risk for traders here.
The slide “BEV Strategies Lead to Economic Supply and Demand Imbalance” states that gasoline vehicles are still transacted at high levels and with low average incentives, while diesel vehicle sales are supported by higher incentives without blowing margins.
Hybrids are still around too. BDO’s slide shows that standard hybrids trade at, on average, 101.96 percent of the recommended retail price.
Things are different with battery-electric vehicles.
BDO’s figures show EVs had a sales-weighted MSRP of $63,564, an average incentive of $2,560 and an average transaction price of $62,743, or 98.71 percent of MSRP.
The same slide said EV sales-weighted MSRP fell 8.0 percent in six months, while transaction prices fell 5.0 percent, with lower price points from new entrants taking most of the brunt.
That doesn’t mean that demand for electric vehicles has collapsed. But it suggests that pricing still does most of the work.
And if NVES pushes more brands to focus more on electric vehicles than its own customer base is willing to do, BDO argues that dealers could end up facing higher holding costs, more discounts and weaker front-end margins just to clear inventory.
This warning becomes even more relevant when read alongside another BDO slide on dealer performance, which states that gross profit per unit on new vehicles is already in a negative trend between $2,250 and $3,980 and that inventory management with a focus on electric vehicles should be a priority.
BDO also argues that the brands best suited to deal with NVES are those that have strong market share, mature dealer networks, better profitability and developed service operations.
Specifically, the slide says large, mature networks like Toyota, Mazda and Ford, as well as dealers that are deeper rooted in their primary market area (PMA), will be better able to defend against price increases and supply shortages.
Smaller car brands with low market share and immature dealer networks may not be in the same position. This is why the first IEV tables are important. They show the brands with a buffer, the brands with early presence, and the size of the financial incentive for one group to sell loans to the other.
What happens next is less clear. When the credit market settles at the lower end of BDO’s range, the costs of doing business become manageable.
If it increases significantly, the pressure will grow to either pay the competition for loans, pay the state or push the electric and hybrid mix even further in order to get back below the limit.
None of these options are painless. And for traders, that means NVES is no longer a political discussion happening somewhere above them.
It begins to affect the type of cars sent to showrooms, the prices required to transport them, and the profit margin left after they’re gone.
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