We often look at the night sky and imagine it as this vast, endless expanse with plenty of room for everyone. But a startling new analysis has just shattered that illusion, revealing that the space directly above our heads is quickly turning into a congested, high-speed highway with no speed limits and very few traffic rules.
According to a study published in December 2025 on the preprint server arXiv, the sheer number of internet satellites launched by companies such as SpaceX, Amazon and OneWeb has pushed Low Earth Orbit (LEO) to a tipping point. We are no longer just “cluttering” space; We are actively flirting with a catastrophic chain reaction that could ruin the orbital environment for generations.
The “CRASH clock” is ticking
The most alarming part of this research is a new metric the scientists have developed called the “CRASH Clock.” This makes it possible to estimate how much time we would have before a major collision if every satellite suddenly stopped taking evasive maneuvers.
In 2018 the clock stood at a relatively comfortable 121 days. That means if everyone took their hands off the steering wheel, we had about four months before metal collided with metal. By 2025, this safety buffer had evaporated. The clock now stands at just 2.8 days. This is an astonishing loss of stability. This implies that the only thing currently keeping our orbital infrastructure intact is constant, active avoidance by autonomous systems.
A high-stakes dodgeball game
To understand the extent of the problem, you have to look at daily traffic. The study notes that a “close approach” – defined as two satellites buzzing within a kilometer of each other – now occurs about every 22 seconds in low Earth orbit.
Think about it. Every 22 seconds, two objects the size of a car traveling at tens of thousands of miles per hour nearly miss each other. With Starlink satellites alone, these near misses happen every few minutes. These are no longer passive objects; They constantly thrash around, burning fuel to avoid debris and other satellites. It’s a high-stakes orbital chicken game that forever demands perfection.
The nightmare scenario: Kessler syndrome
The reason scientists are sounding the alarm isn’t just a single crash. When two satellites collide, they don’t just break apart; They shatter into thousands of pieces of shrapnel, each of which turns into a bullet capable of taking out other satellites. This creates a feedback loop known as Kessler syndrome.
When this domino effect occurs, it doesn’t just mean that your satellite internet is down. We’re talking about the potential loss of GPS, weather forecasting systems that predict hurricanes, and the communications networks that military and emergency responders rely on. A cascade this bad could create a debris field so dense that we couldn’t fire rockets through it, effectively trapping us on Earth and ending the space age.
This study is a wake-up call that “space traffic management” can no longer be just a buzzword. We urgently need international rules that limit overcrowding in certain orbital lanes and enforce strict collision avoidance protocols. Right now, space operates like a busy intersection with no traffic lights, and if we don’t start getting traffic flow under control, it’s only a matter of time before our luck runs out.
