Donald Trump has claimed that Venezuela will “hand over” between 30 million and 50 million barrels of oil to the United States after a US-backed operation toppled President Nicolás Maduro from power.
In a post on social media, the US president said the oil, worth an estimated $2.8bn (£2.1bn) at current market prices, would be sold by the US, with the proceeds controlled by it and used “for the benefit of the people of Venezuela and the United States”.
The comments came days after Maduro was flown to the United States to face long-standing drug trafficking and weapons charges, and after Delcy Rodríguez was sworn in as Venezuela’s interim president.
Trump also said he expected U.S. oil companies in Venezuela to be “operational” within 18 months, adding that major American investment would soon flow into the country.
However, energy analysts have cast cold water on the timeline, warning that restoring Venezuela’s oil industry would require tens of billions of dollars and could take a decade or longer.
Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world, estimated at more than 300 billion barrels. However, production has been in long-term decline since the early 2000s due to underinvestment, mismanagement and international sanctions. Its heavy crude oil is also costly and complex to refine, limiting the number of plants that can process it.
China, currently the largest buyer of Venezuelan oil, condemned Trump’s comments, calling them a violation of international law and a violation of Venezuelan sovereignty. Beijing also criticized reports that Washington is pushing Caracas to cut economic ties with China, Russia, Iran and Cuba in return for U.S. investment.
A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said cooperation between China and Venezuela is “between two sovereign states” and must be protected by international law.
According to US media reports, Trump has pushed for an exclusive oil partnership between Washington and Caracas. On Truth Social, he said the oil was sold at market prices, but revenues were directly monitored by the US government.
Trump argued that increased Venezuelan oil production would help keep world prices low and said it would be “good for the United States” to make the country a major supplier again.
Nevertheless, the major US oil companies were cautious. Chevron, currently the only American oil company operating in Venezuela with a limited license, said it remains focused on employee safety and regulatory compliance. ConocoPhillips, which exited Venezuela years ago after nationalization, said it was monitoring developments but that it was “premature to speculate on future investments.”
Exxon declined to comment.
Venezuela nationalized its oil industry in 1976 and tightened state control over foreign assets in 2007 under Hugo Chávez. In 2019, a World Bank court ordered Venezuela to pay ConocoPhillips $8.7 billion in compensation for expropriated assets, an amount that has still not been paid.
While Trump and US officials have claimed that Venezuela “stole” American oil, legal experts point out that natural resources are the property of sovereign states under international law. In the past, U.S. companies operated under licensing agreements rather than owning the oil themselves.
With Venezuela’s infrastructure deteriorating, sanctions still in place and political uncertainty high, analysts warn that a meaningful increase in production – and any impact on global oil prices – is unlikely in the near future.
