The UK’s heavy reliance on China for net-zero technologies such as batteries could put up to 90,000 manufacturing jobs at risk in the event of a major supply chain shock, according to a new report.
An analysis by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) warns that a major disruption in the supply of battery components lasting just a year could cripple the UK car industry, sharply reduce production of electric vehicles and put factory jobs at risk across the country.
The report models a scenario in which geopolitical conflicts such as a Taiwan crisis or a natural disaster disrupt Chinese battery manufacturing and processing. In this case, UK battery and car production could fall by almost half, with far-reaching knock-on effects across the entire supply chain.
Researchers estimate that around 67,000 jobs in electric vehicle manufacturing, 8,000 in battery production and nearly 15,000 jobs across the battery supply chain would be at risk, for a total of about 90,000 jobs.
The IPPR argues that China’s dominance in battery materials and components gives Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers a built-in advantage over British and European rivals, particularly in times of disruption.
China is the world’s largest manufacturer of batteries and battery accessories, including refined lithium, cathodes and anodes. According to the report, even if the UK sources battery cells from Europe or Japan, many of these manufacturers themselves rely on Chinese raw materials, indirectly putting the UK at risk.
The IPPR estimates that 47% of the UK’s battery cell demand will still be met through imports by 2030. For cathodes, this proportion rises to 80%, while anodes are expected to be fully imported. In the event of a supply disruption, battery performance could drop by 50%, resulting in around 583,000 fewer electric vehicles being built in a year.
Pranesh Narayanan, research director at IPPR, said Britain’s exposure reflected the increasing fragility of global trade.
“Britain is a small open trading nation sailing through an international economy whose waters are becoming more choppy by the day,” he said. “Trade wars, geopolitical conflicts and global shocks ultimately harm the UK because we rely so heavily on overseas supply chains for essential goods, including clean energy technologies.”
To reduce the risk, IPPR calls on ministers to accelerate domestic production of key battery components and critical minerals, while diversifying international supply chains to avoid over-reliance on any single country.
The report suggests encouraging joint ventures between UK companies and Asian manufacturers, as well as targeted industrial support to strengthen supply chain resilience.
Laura Chappell, a researcher at IPPR, said economic resilience should become a core objective of the UK’s foreign and industrial policy.
“Diplomats should work to build partnerships that underpin the UK’s future energy security,” she said. “These can be win-win situations, supporting jobs and growth in both the UK and partner countries.”
The findings are likely to intensify the debate in Whitehall over the impact of the net zero transition on national security. A separate report from the Royal United Services Institute warned last year that over-reliance on China for clean energy technologies posed strategic risks.
Energy Secretary Ed Miliband has been criticized by Conservatives who argue his push for a fully decarbonised electricity system by 2030 risks “tying Britain to Beijing” by increasing the use of Chinese solar panels and batteries.
The administration has previously rejected that characterization, insisting it will “never jeopardize national security,” arguing that the greater long-term risk lies in continued reliance on volatile fossil fuel markets dominated by authoritarian states.
However, the IPPR report adds new urgency to calls for a more forceful industrial strategy, warning that without decisive action, the UK’s net zero targets could dangerously jeopardize key sectors of its manufacturing base.
