The global market for humanoid robots could be worth up to $9 trillion by 2050, with China expected to dominate demand and basic household models possibly making their way into homes within the next five years, a new study says.
A report from the Royal Bank of Canada estimates that humanoid robots could become a central part of everyday life in the coming decades, transforming labor markets and household routines. The household sector alone is expected to account for around $2.9 trillion of the total market, accounting for about a third of global demand.
Early versions of humanoid robots are likely to be limited in their capabilities and initially perform niche tasks such as entertainment devices or personal fitness assistants. Advanced functions, including complex household and care tasks, are expected to take significantly longer to mature, with widespread adoption of fully functional household robots not expected until the next 20 years.
China is expected to become the world’s largest market by mid-century, accounting for around 60 percent of total demand. Analysts say multiple humanoid robots could become commonplace in Chinese households due to demographic pressures and an aging population.
Tom Narayan, an analyst at RBC Global Markets and co-author of the report, said attitudes toward humanoid robots in Asia differ significantly from those in the West. In many Asian economies, robots are seen less as science fiction and more as a practical solution to structural challenges such as elderly care and a shrinking workforce, he said.
“In Asia, humanoids are seen as a necessity,” Narayan said. “In 25 years, you could see hundreds of millions of these robots in homes, helping with everything from caring for the elderly to everyday tasks like ironing clothes or personal hygiene. Once large-scale adoption begins, it is likely to accelerate very quickly.”
The sector’s rapid growth has already prompted caution among policymakers in Beijing. China’s National Development and Reform Commission recently warned of a possible bubble in the humanoid robotics industry, noting that more than 150 companies are currently working on similar technologies. Officials have expressed concerns that excessive duplication could dilute investments and slow meaningful innovation.
According to the report, humanoid robots could replace up to 40 percent of labor-intensive jobs in sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing and cleaning by 2050. Proponents argue that this could free workers from monotonous and physically demanding jobs and allow them to transition to higher value or more fulfilling jobs.
Investment interest is also increasing in the USA, especially in Silicon Valley. Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, has backed robotics startups such as 1X Technologies and Figure AI. Meanwhile, at Tesla, Elon Musk is developing Tesla’s humanoid robot Optimus, with production expected to begin in 2026 with ambitious plans to produce up to a million units within five years.
Some experts question whether a human-like form is the most efficient design for robots, arguing that specialized machines are better suited to many tasks. However, Narayan believes humanoid robots could ultimately be the most cost-effective option due to economies of scale, especially if they can perform a wide range of functions in environments designed for humans.
He added that the long-term business model for humanoid robots could be similar to that of smartphones, with hardware sold at scale and ongoing revenue generated through software and applications, drawing parallels to Apple’s app-based ecosystem.
If predictions prove accurate, humanoid robots could go from novelty to necessity within a generation, reshaping households, labor markets and global technology supply chains.
