The cost of supporting children with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) will continue to rise for much of the decade, despite a major overhaul of the system set out in the government’s long-awaited white paper on schools.
Ministers have confirmed that education, health and care plans (EHCPs), the legally binding documents that guarantee tailored support, will be gradually scaled back for many students as a new system of specialist provision is introduced. However, as the reforms are gradually implemented, the number of EHCPs is expected to continue to increase.
EHCP numbers have doubled in the last decade, increasing annual SEND spending to around £12 billion. Government forecasts suggest more than 8 per cent of children could have an EHCP by 2029-30, before numbers start to fall. After that, the total number is expected to fall by around 270,000 and return to around today’s level of 640,000. Officials expect spending to stabilize at current levels by 2035, but warn that longer-term forecasts remain uncertain.
Bridget Phillipson said the reforms were designed to reduce the adversarial nature of the current system, in which families were often embroiled in lengthy disputes with local authorities. While the Government initially appeared to signal that EHCPs could potentially be scrapped entirely, ministers have now made it clear that families can still apply for them, particularly for children with the most complex needs. However, in most cases where the amount of support is at issue, mediation replaces court proceedings.
Under the new framework, schools will be legally required to publish inclusion policies outlining how they support SEND pupils and their performance will be assessed by Ofsted. Children with additional needs are expected to receive individual support plans, called a digital “passport”, by the end of the decade, designed to reduce reliance on formal EHCP applications.
The revised model will introduce three levels of additional support, in addition to a universal provision available to all SEND students. Most children remain in mainstream schools and receive either targeted teaching support or additional professional support such as speech and language therapy. Only those with the most complex needs are referred to specialist placements, with EHCPs reserved primarily for this group.
The reforms will cost a total of £4 billion, including £1.6 billion allocated to supporting mainstream schools to strengthen provision. However, the Department for Education has acknowledged that EHCP numbers may not fall below their current levels and that rising demand could continue to put pressure on local authorities’ budgets.
As well as changes to SEND provision, the white paper proposes stricter oversight of private specialist schools, including the possibility of capping fees and restricting expansion if deemed unnecessary. Ministers have criticized what they described as excessive fees and raised concerns about private equity involvement in the sector.
The paper also reiterates the government’s commitment to encourage all schools to join or set up multi-academy trusts, while warning against excessive salaries for senior managers and calling for clearer expectations between families and schools.
A three-month public consultation on the proposals is currently underway. While ministers argue the overhaul will ease pressure on families and improve early intervention, critics warn that without deep structural reforms to assessment thresholds and accountability, rising demand could drive up costs further before savings are made.
