Some of the UK’s best-known retailers and visitor attractions are expecting dramatic swings in their business rates from April next year as the 2026 reassessment comes with what is already being dubbed ‘Reeves’ Christmas tax’ across the industry.
New analysis from global accountancy firm Ryan shows the retail landscape is increasingly characterized by extremes, with targeted and seasonal attractions seeing some of the strongest increases, while several well-known high street names are seeing significant price reductions.
The worst affected are seasonal and adventure locations, whose popularity has boomed since the last assessment date. The rateable value of the land used for Winter Wonderland in Hyde Park will rise from £1.0 million to £3.75 million – an increase of 275 per cent. Despite the transition relief limiting the increase to 30 per cent in the first year, the site’s business rates bill is still expected to rise by £166,500 next year, from £555,000 to £721,500.
Lapland UK at Ascot is set for an even more dramatic change. Its rateable value has risen from £150,000 to £1.87m, an extraordinary rise of 1,147 per cent, reflecting the explosive growth in demand for immersive Christmas experiences.
London’s major visitor markets are also under pressure. The rateable value of Camden Stables Market will rise from £1.26m to £3.5m, an increase of 178%. This will see the bill rise by £209,790 next April, again capped at 30%. Nearby Camden Lock Market is facing a similar rise, with its valuation rising from £660,000 to £2.27m, an increase of 244 per cent.
Traditional retailers are not immune. Hamleys’ flagship toy store on Regent Street is enjoying one of the biggest rises among permanent retailers, with its taxable value rising by 38 per cent and business rates set to rise by £449,550 next year.
While the transition relief limits first-year increases for large properties, the protection only delays the impact. With caps increasing annually, retailers facing the largest valuation jumps could still see their bills more than double by the end of the valuation cycle.
At the other end of the spectrum, some of the UK’s best-known retail names are emerging as clear winners. Waterstones’ Piccadilly flagship will see its bill fall by around £828,000 next year, a 45 per cent reduction, after its rateable value fell by £1.36 million – the biggest fall recorded in the analysis. Primark’s Oxford Street store at 499-517 Oxford Street is also facing a significant cut, with its bill falling by £793,000, or 30 per cent.
Alex Probyn, property tax practice leader in Europe and Asia Pacific at Ryan, said the scale of the changes highlighted how uneven the retail landscape had become.
“Seasonal attractions such as Winter Wonderland and Lapland UK enjoy significant increases in popularity between ratings dates, so the upward pressure on their ratings was not unexpected – but the scale of the increase certainly was,” he said. “The key question is whether the numbers accurately reflect the short-term, seasonal nature of these businesses or whether broader income assumptions were applied.”
Probyn added that divergence was strong across the sector. “Large format stores and hardware stores are seeing some of the biggest declines as rental prices soften, while luxury outlet retail in destinations such as Bicester is seeing a boost on the back of exceptional sales.”
The situation in first-class luxury locations is more stable. “Bond Street’s world record retail rents have remained broadly stable between valuation dates and this stability is clearly reflected in the 2026 draft valuations for large luxury properties,” he said.
Overall, the reassessment highlights that the retail sector is increasingly divided between experiential destinations and traditional formats – setting the stage for a hugely unequal impact when new business tariffs emerge next spring.
