Rachel Reeves has confirmed she will make a spring statement on March 3 as the Treasury seeks to restore confidence after businesses blamed a year of sustained tax speculation for weakening the UK economy.
In announcing the date, the Treasury said the Chancellor had formally asked the Office for Budget Responsibility to produce updated forecasts for the economy and public finances. The move is intended to provide “stability and certainty” after widespread criticism of the prolonged preparation of the November budget, which many business leaders said had stalled investment and hiring decisions.
Reeves faced sustained criticism of leaks, briefings and political kite-flying in the months leading up to the fall budget. Economists and industry groups argued that the uncertainty contributed to a decline in consumer spending and a freeze in private sector activity. Official data later showed the economy contracted unexpectedly in October, while the Bank of England warned that growth would be almost stagnant at the end of the year.
Business surveys also point to a significant slowdown in economic activity around the turn of the year, with companies delaying spending decisions until there is more clarity on tax and regulatory changes. Economists said the uncertainty was exacerbated by the limited leeway Reeves initially left against her self-imposed fiscal rules, raising the risk that even a small deterioration in the public finance outlook could force further tax hikes or spending cuts.
At the November Budget, the Chancellor sought to address these concerns by more than doubling her budgetary headroom to £22 billion, arguing that the move would protect public finances from future shocks and reduce the likelihood of sudden policy changes. She also announced a change in approach, confirming that the government would hold a major budget event every year.
As part of this, the Treasury said it would respond to the OBR’s March forecasts with a formal statement to Parliament rather than a full budget. Officials said the approach would help create more predictability for households and businesses and support the government’s broader growth agenda.
The spring forecasts are expected to be published before a permanent successor is appointed for Richard Hughes, who resigned as chairman of the OBR after sensitive budget documents were accidentally published online ahead of Reeves’ November statement. Both the Treasury and the OBR are continuing to carry out internal investigations into the leak.
Reeves has previously acknowledged the damage caused by speculation in the run-up to the autumn budget and promised to improve discipline around budget announcements. Setting a date for early March is seen in Whitehall as an attempt to draw a clear line under this episode and reset relationships with businesses and financial markets ahead of the new financial year.
