While the Australian new car market is larger than it was a decade ago, it is also more fragmented.
Total sales increased from 1,155,408 deliveries in 2015 to 1,241,037 in 2025, an increase of 85,629 vehicles. But in the same period, top end of the market gave up significant market share to a growing “long tail” group of smaller and medium-sized car brands.
The clearest measure is concentration. In 2015, 75.9 percent of all new car sales were from the top 10 brands. In 2025, the share of the top 10 fell to 67.3 percent. In other words: Almost every third new vehicle sold last year came from outside the ten largest brands; in 2015 it was every fourth.
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The top 10 brands together delivered 877,399 vehicles in 2015. In 2025, the top 10 delivered 835,515 – 41,884 fewer vehicles – even though the overall market was higher. Net growth for the full decade came from outside the top 10, where combined sales rose from 278,009 units in 2015 to 405,522 units in 2025 (up 127,513).
Even the dominance of the top three brands weakened slightly in terms of market share. The three largest companies held 36.6 percent market share in 2015, up from 34.3 percent in 2025 – although their total volume remained virtually the same over the decade (423,211 in 2015 vs. 426,185 in 2025). The market expanded under them.
For statisticians, the HHI (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index) has increased from 777 in 2015 to 709 in 2025.
Snapshot of brand concentration
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Total market (units) | 1,155,408 | 1,241,037 |
| Total number of brands listed | 68 | 79 |
| Brands ≥10,000 sales | 19 | 23 |
| Brands ≥1,000 sales | 39 | 48 |
| Top 3 brand share | 36.6% | 34.3% |
| Top 10 brand share | 75.9% | 67.3% |
| Top 20 brand share | 94.5% | 89.0% |
| Outside the top 10 (units) | 278,009 | 405,522 |
| Outside the top 10 stock | 24.1% | 32.7% |
| HHI | 777 | 709 |
What stands out here is this more Brands are achieving significant volume while the Big 10 are losing dominance. The number of brands with more than 10,000 sales rose from 19 to 23, and the number of brands with more than 1,000 sales rose from 39 to 48. That’s a sign that small brands are struggling in a market with more big players than 10 years ago.
It’s worth noting that Australia is a testing ground for many Chinese brands, which use its relative size, easy access and lack of tariffs to test their products for Western flavors before moving on to larger and far more expensive markets.
Looking back in time, the list of top 10 brands in 2015 reads like a snapshot of the end of a golden era for Australian manufacturing. Holden was still a driving force, Honda was still a high-volume mainstream brand and several Japanese and European brands placed comfortably in the top 10.
Top 10 Brands – 2015
| rank | brand | Sales | share |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toyota | 206,236 | 17.8% |
| 2 | Mazda | 114,024 | 9.9% |
| 3 | Holden | 102,951 | 8.9% |
| 4 | Hyundai | 102,004 | 8.8% |
| 5 | Mitsubishi | 71,743 | 6.2% |
| 6 | ford | 70,454 | 6.1% |
| 7 | Nissan | 66,062 | 5.7% |
| 8 | Volkswagen | 60,225 | 5.2% |
| 9 | Subaru | 43,600 | 3.8% |
| 10 | Honda | 40,100 | 3.5% |
Now compare that to 2025: Holden is off the list (and out of the market) and a wave of new entrants have forced its way into the top tier – including several Chinese brands.
Top 10 Brands – 2025
| rank | brand | Sales | share |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toyota | 239,863 | 19.3% |
| 2 | ford | 94,399 | 7.6% |
| 3 | Mazda | 91,923 | 7.4% |
| 4 | Light up | 82,105 | 6.6% |
| 5 | Hyundai | 77,208 | 6.2% |
| 6 | Mitsubishi | 61,198 | 4.9% |
| 7 | companion | 52,809 | 4.3% |
| 8 | BYD | 52,415 | 4.2% |
| 9 | Isuzu Ute | 42,297 | 3.4% |
| 10 | MG | 41,298 | 3.3% |
An important point: The “cut line” for the top 10 hasn’t moved much. In 2015, the tenth-placed brand sold 40,100 vehicles; in 2025 there were 41,298. What has changed is how much volume sits outside This top group and how many brands are now able to hover around (or above) that 40,000-50,000 mark?
Toyota has even expanded its lead at the top. In 2015, Toyota’s lead over second-place Mazda was 92,212 units. In 2025, Toyota’s lead over second-place Ford increased to 145,464.
Several brands that barely registered in 2015 (or were not listed at all) became real volume players by 2025.
Key findings from the 2015 brand table:
- Great Wall Motors recorded 142 deliveries in 2015; the renamed companion delivered 52,809 in 2025
- Chery got out 201 in 2015 to 34,889 in 2025
- MG did not appear in the 2015 brand list, but was delivered 41,298 Units in 2025 (enough for a top 10 placement)
This is what market dilution looks like in practice. Toyota is still huge, but there are simply more brands capturing significant shares of the remaining market.
If you’re looking for the question “When did it really spread?” seek. Right now, 2023 is the year that changed the landscape. During the 2015-2025 period, the market’s lowest top 10 share was recorded in 2023, when the top 10 fell to 66.9 percent and the top three fell to 33.1 percent. It wasn’t that the top brands collapsed, but that the middle of the market expanded rapidly.
Interesting facts:
- The market grew 85,629 units from 2015 to 2025, but overall volume for the top 10 brands declined 41,884
- The share of the market “outside the top 10” grew by 127,513 units over the decade (from 278,009 To 405,522)
- The number of brands listed increased from 68 To 79
- Toyota’s sales increased from 206,236 To 239,863while his lead extended to second place 92,212 To 145,464
Rusty Toyota buyers are still hugely popular and it’s clear Australia still has a dominant number one brand, but the market behind it has become more competitive, crowded and dynamic – with far more brands now capable of five-figure annual volumes.
That’s great for consumers, who now have more choice than ever before, but it begs the question: How long can our market sustain so many brands and models?
MORE: Another record year for new car sales in Australia, but modest growth overall in 2025
