It’s fascinating to watch Apple act while the rest of the tech world puts on the brakes. While most smartphone makers are bracing for a tough 2026, Apple appears to be preparing for another victory lap. A new investor note from analyst Jeff Pu gives us a rare behind-the-scenes look at Cupertino’s strategy, and if his predictions are correct, the iPhone 18 era will be about a lot more than just a new camera or a slightly faster chip.
What is immediately noticeable is the contrast in market confidence. Pu predicts a broader industry downturn in 2026 and predicts a 4 percent decline in global smartphone shipments. He cites rising storage costs and a lack of enthusiasm in the budget Android market as the main causes. But in typical Apple fashion, the company appears ready to swim upstream. Pu estimates that Apple will actually increase its shipments by 2 percent to around 250 million units. This would increase their global market share to 21 percent – a steady increase compared to previous years. It appears that the current iPhone 17 lineup is doing much of the heavy lifting here, exceeding production expectations and proving that demand for premium devices isn’t fading as quickly as some feared.
But the real headline-grabber for enthusiasts is the hardware roadmap
For years, the “iPhone Fold” has been a mythical device, constantly rumored but never seen. Pooh’s note suggests that 2026 is finally the year, albeit with a twist that could divide fans: the return of Touch ID. According to the report, Apple’s first foldable device will forego Face ID entirely, likely due to the technical challenges of packing complex sensors into a slim, foldable form factor. Instead, users authenticate via a fingerprint sensor, a feature that hasn’t been present on flagship iPhones for years.
The device itself sounds like a beast, boasting a 7.8-inch internal screen that practically fits an iPad Mini in your pocket, paired with a handy 5.3-inch cover display. Rumor has it that the chassis is made from a mix of aluminum and titanium – a smart move to keep the device durable without feeling like a brick.
Interestingly, Apple also seems to be rethinking its launch calendar. The note suggests a split release strategy: The high-end iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max and new Fold would arrive in fall 2026, while the standard iPhone 18 and a new “Air” model would launch later, in spring 2027. This keeps Apple in the news cycle all year long and prevents the cheaper models from getting lost in the hype surrounding the Pro launch.
Under the hood, this generation is shaping up to be an AI powerhouse
Pu highlights the move to next-generation N2 silicon and advanced WMCM packaging. In plain language, this means chips that are not only faster, but also significantly more efficient at handling the heavy lifting required of the AI on the device. As 12GB of storage becomes standard, Apple is clearly building out these phones to run a more advanced, understandable version of Siri directly on the device, reducing the need to send data to the cloud.
Ultimately, this leak paints a picture of a company that doesn’t just iterate; It is aggressively segmenting its offering to achieve growth in a saturated market. By reviving Touch ID for a specific use case and splitting the launch cycle, Apple is signaling that the iPhone’s “one-size-fits-all” era is officially over.
