Analysts predict that China will take the top spot as the world’s largest automaker by sales in 2025, surpassing Japan for the first time Geely will join BYD in the top 10 best-selling global automotive brands.
A Nikkei China According to the report, Chinese car brands will sell 27 million new vehicles worldwide in 2025, surpassing Japan’s forecast 25 million sales.
Despite controversial import tariffs on automobiles in both Europe and the United States, China’s auto industry is set to break Japan’s decades-long stranglehold on the top for the first time.
The report said domestic sales in China will account for about 70 percent of total sales by Chinese brands, while exports are expected to amount to about seven million vehicles.
The forecast takes into account sales from Chinese brands and determines the origin of vehicles sold through partnerships – such as Stellantis. jump motor – based on the brand under which they are marketed.
Using data from automakers and S&P Global Mobility, the report covers both passenger and commercial vehicles and highlights significant sales growth for Chinese brands in Southeast Asia. Africa and Central America also recorded increasing sales.
Chinese automakers’ export growth is driven by an oversupply of new vehicles in China, leading to price discounts and lower profitability, with exports seen as a way to counteract the oversupply.
In Australia, Chinese-made cars recorded 24 percent year-on-year sales growth (excluding) between January and November 30, 2025. Tesla And Polestar Sales, reported separately).
Despite the increase, sales of Chinese-made cars lag behind Japan and, including Tesla and Polestar, are close to the level of second-place Thailand with a total of 230,643 vehicles in the first 11 months of the year.
In November 2025, Chinese-made cars topped 200,000 for the first time in a calendar year, surpassing the previous month’s total of 176,159 for all of 2024.
With more than 200,000 sales in 2025, Chinese-made vehicles will break their previous Australian sales record of 193,433 set in 2023.
companion was the best-selling Chinese brand locally until the end of November, ranking seventh, ahead of BYD in eighth and MG in the 10th
The Tesla Model Y was the best-selling Chinese-made model with 28,460 sales, making it Australia’s most popular electric vehicle.
The overall Australian new car market, which was forecast to decline earlier this year, could still set a new sales record in 2025, after breaking the 2023 record of 1,216,780 in 2024 (1,237,287).
MORE: VFACTS November 2025: New car sales in Australia fall as major car brands slump
