Boxing Day sales are expected to bring a rise of 3.6 billion pounds to British retailers this year, around 1 billion pounds less than in 2024, as cost of living pressures continue to weigh on household spending.
The forecast comes from Barclays, which tracks almost half of all credit and debit card transactions in the UK. The expected decline represents a blow to retailers in their key “golden quarter,” traditionally the most lucrative time of the year.
Seven in 10 consumers say ongoing pricing pressure will impact their spending during the sale, with fewer shoppers overall planning to attend. The proportion of people planning to shop on Boxing Day has fallen to 26 percent from 28 percent last year.
However, those who venture out are expected to spend more money. The average Boxing Day shopper plans to spend £253, up from £236 a year ago, suggesting fewer but more determined bargain hunters will boost sales.
Almost half of shoppers say they will use the discounts to stock up on familiar products at cheaper prices, while one in four plan to focus solely on essentials. Apparel remains the most sought-after category, followed by food and beverages and beauty products, with many shoppers preferring premium brands at discounted prices.
The weaker outlook follows a disappointing pre-Christmas period for retailers. Sales fell 0.2 percent in November and are still about 3 percent below pre-pandemic levels as consumers continue to prioritize savings after several years of elevated inflation and interest rates.
Karen Johnson, head of retail at Barclays, said shoppers had shown “how cost-conscious they are throughout 2025”, a trend she said will continue on Boxing Day. She added that artificial intelligence is increasingly influencing the way consumers approach sales events by helping them compare prices, generate gift ideas and set up personalized notifications.
Two in five shoppers say they will use AI tools to find the best deals this Boxing Day, despite half of those surveyed fearing the technology could encourage overspending. Despite the rise of digital tools, most consumers still plan to do at least some of their shopping in-store, with many describing the experience as part of the holiday tradition.
However, for a significant minority, Boxing Day is less about bargains and more about downtime. Almost a quarter of people believe the day should be spent at home with family rather than on the high street.
“Boxing Day remains a pivotal moment for retailers, driven by Christmas nostalgia,” Johnson said. “But it has evolved to meet modern consumer demands, where value, convenience and technology are increasingly shaping the way people shop.”
